So, as you probably already know, the Golden Globes will not be televised this year. It won’t be livestreamed either. There will be no red carpet and no celebrity presenters. One assumes that there will be precious few, if any, celebrity acceptances as well. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association—the shady organization that puts on the Globes each year—will reportedly announce winners in real-time on its website and social media channels during the “private event” this Sunday night.

Of course, the HFPA pretty much had this coming. Still, it’s kind of a bummer, especially considering how good a lot of nominees are this year. I’ve been poring over the films and TV shows up for these controversial awards and thinking about what should win, what’s most likely to win and what I would like to see win. The following picks are all based on some ineffable combination of those considerations. For what it’s worth…

Best Picture, Drama

Belfast
CODA
Dune
King Richard
*The Power of the Dog

Best Picture, Musical or Comedy

Cyrano
Don’t Look Up
*Licorice Pizza
Tick, Tick … Boom!
West Side Story

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama

Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
*Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Kristen Stewart, Spencer

Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama

Mahershala Ali, Swan Song
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
*Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy

Marion Cotillard, Annette
Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up
Emma Stone, Cruella
*Rachel Zegler, West Side Story

Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy

*Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick … Boom!
Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza
Anthony Ramos, In the Heights

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture

Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
*Ruth Negga, Passing

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture

Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
Jamie Dornan, Belfast
*Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

Best Director, Motion Picture

Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
*Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune

Best Screenplay, Motion Picture

*Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
Aaron Sorkin, Being the Ricardos

Best Motion Picture, Animated

Encanto
*Flee
Luca
My Sunny Maad
Raya and the Last Dragon

Best Motion Picture, Non-English Language

Compartment No. 6
Drive My Car
The Hand of God
A Hero
*Parallel Mothers

Best Score, Motion Picture

Alexandre Desplat, The French Dispatch
Germaine Franco, Encanto
*Jonny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog
Alberto Iglesias, Parallel Mothers
Hans Zimmer, Dune

Best Song, Motion Picture

“Be Alive,” King Richard
“Dos Oruguitas,” Encanto
“Down to Joy,” Belfast
* “Here I Am [Singing My Way Home],” Respect
“No Time to Die,” No Time to Die

Best Drama Series

Lupin
The Morning Show
Pose
Squid Game
*Succession

Best Musical/Comedy Series

The Great
*Hacks
Only Murders in the Building
Reservation Dogs
Ted Lasso

Best Limited Series, Anthology Series or Television Motion Picture

Dopesick
Impeachment: American Crime Story
Maid
Mare of Easttown
*The Underground Railroad

Best Actress in a Limited Series, Anthology Series or Television Motion Picture

Jessica Chastain, Scenes From a Marriage
Cynthia Erivo, Genius: Aretha
Elizabeth Olsen, Wandavision
Margaret Qualley, Maid
*Kate Winslet, Mare of Easttown

Best Actor in a Limited Series or Television Motion Picture

Paul Bettany, Wandavision
Oscar Isaac, Scenes From a Marriage
*Michael Keaton, Dopesick
Ewan McGregor, Halston
Tahar Rahim, The Serpent

Best Actress in a Television Series, Drama

*Uzo Aduba, In Treatment
Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show
Christine Baranski, The Good Fight
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Michaela Jaé Rodriguez, Pose

Best Actor in a Television Series, Drama

Brian Cox, Succession
Lee Jung-jae, Squid Game
Billy Porter, Pose
*Jeremy Strong, Succession
Omar Sy, Lupin

Best Actress in a Television Series, Musical or Comedy

Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
Elle Fanning, The Great
Issa Rae, Insecure
Tracee Ellis Ross, black-ish
*Jean Smart, Hacks

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series, Musical or Comedy

Anthony Anderson, black-ish
*Nicholas Hoult, The Great
Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso

Best Supporting Actress, Television

Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus
Kaitlyn Dever, Dopesick
*Andie MacDowell, Maid
Sarah Snook, Succession
Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso

Best Supporting Actor, Television

Billy Crudup, The Morning Show
*Kieran Culkin, Succession
Mark Duplass, The Morning Show
Brett Goldstein, Ted Lasso
O Yeong-su, Squid Game