2020 Election
PITTSBURGH, PA – NOVEMBER 02: Lady Gaga speaks in support of Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden during a drive-in campaign rally at Heinz Field on November 02, 2020 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. One day before the election, Biden is campaigning in Pennsylvania, a key battleground state that President Donald Trump won narrowly in 2016. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

The 2020 US Election is unlike anything this generation has ever experienced. A global health crisis has threatened lives and livelihoods, a climate catastrophe is closing in on earthlings by the day, the Black Lives Matter movement has become more powerful and prolific than ever before and tensions continue to rise between world leaders. Celebrities have become some of the primary influencers of change and record numbers of voters have arrived in droves – either by post or at polling booths –  across the United States.

Whether you hail from the US, or curiously watch on from another corners of the globe, there is a lot to unpack. Here, we try to make sense of the chaos and confusion, in real time.

For readers in Australia, the ABC will begin its live broadcast coverage from 6am AEDT on November 4. Channel 9 will also cover the election from 5am AEDT. Check back here for updated coverage.

Early exit polling data from Georgia suggests that Trump swayed 10 percent of Black voters
12:30PM AEDT, 8:30PM EST 11/03/2020 – According to The New York Times.

2020 Election
OWINGS, MARYLAND – NOVEMBER 03: People wait in line to cast their votes at Northern High School, on November 03, 2020 in Owings, Maryland. After a record-breaking early voting turnout, Americans head to the polls on the last day to cast their vote for incumbent U.S. President Donald Trump or Democratic nominee Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election. (Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images)

1 in 10 voters will be Generation Z
10:40AM AEDT, 6:40PM EST 11/03/2020 – According to the ABC.

the first poll closes at 7:00PM EST IN FLORIDA
8:15AM AEDT, 4:15PM EST 11/03/2020 – The countdown is on. Florida, an important ‘swing state’ will close its polls first at 7:00PM due to time difference as confirmed by The New York TimesGeorgia will also close at 7:00PM followed by North Carolina and Ohio at 7:30PM, Michigan and Pennsylvania at 8:00PM, Arizona, Minnesota and Wisconsin at 9:00PM and finally, Nevada at 10:00PM.

In a  20-year period, fraud involving mailed ballots has affected 0.00006 percent of votes
8:00AM AEDT, 4:00PM EST 11/03/2020 – Or one case per state every six or seven years, according to The New York Times.

1.7 million young latino voters have voted early
7:40AM AEDT, 3:40PM EST 11/03/2020 – According to the NALEO Educational Fund, 1.7 million young Latino voters have already submitted their ballots. This is up by 313 percent from the 2016 election.

Voters have now cast 73.3 percent of the total votes counted in the 2016 general election
7:30AM AEDT, 3:30PM EST 11/03/2020 – Good morning (or afternoon if you’re following on from the United States). As of 2:00PM local EST, nationally, voters have now cast 73.3 percent of the total votes counted in the 2016 general election, according to the US Elections Project. Broken down, these numbers look like this:

Total Early Votes: 100,978,567
In-Person Votes: 35,923,053
Mail Ballots Returned: 65,055,514
Mail Ballots Outstanding: 27,018,939

On ThE eVE OF ELECTION NIGHT, Joe Biden Leads Polling Predictions with  252 points

3:00PM AEDT, 11:00PM EST 11/02/2020 – The Financial Times finds that at the end of November 2nd and at the time of publishing in the United States, Joe Biden is leading with 252 Electoral College points according to current polling predictions. 49 points are from leaning states. Donald Trump is trailing behind on 125, with 48 of those from leaning states. The swing vote currently accounts for 161 points.

There is a  97 in 100 chance that Joe Biden Wins The Popular Vote

2:40PM AEDT, 10:40PM EST 11/02/2020 – Also predicted by Five Thirty Eight, there is an enormous chance that Joe Biden could win the popular vote. However in the United States, the election weighs almost entirely on the ‘Electoral College’ vote. The party must have at least 270 electoral points to win the election with ‘swing states’ often influencing the final result. There is less than a one percent chance that neither party gains 270 points where in turn, the Congress decides the next President.

Below is an excellent explanation of the voting system.

THERE IS A 4 percent CHANCE THAT THE ELECTION HINGES ON A RECOUNT
2:35PM AEDT, 10:35PM EST 11/02/2020 – According to Five Thirty Eight.

Only 9 states expect to have at least 98 percent of unofficial results reported by noon the day after the election
2:25PM AEDT, 10:25PM EST 11/02/2020 – It is unlikely we will have a final result on Election Night (which may become ‘Election Week’). The New York Times reports that a significant number of votes could still be outstanding. In addition to the above, New York and Alaska will not report any mail votes on election night. And officials in Michigan and Pennsylvania, two important states, have said full official counts could take several days.

more than 3,600 troops across 16 states have been deployed
1:00pm AEDT, 9:00PM EST 11/02/2020 – Regardless of the result, law enforcement is preparing for unrest across America. The Military Times says the National Guard has deployed troops; 1,000 in Massachusetts, 300 in Arizona, 300 in Alabama, and an undisclosed number in Florida, Oregon and Illinois.

2020 election
US President Donald Trump speaks during a Make America Great Again rally at Kenosha Regional Airport November 2, 2020, in Kenosha, Wisconsin. (Photo by Brendan Smialowski / AFP) (Photo by BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images)

Federal Judge Denies Attempt By Republicans To Throw Out 127,000 Texas Votes
10:30AM aedt, 6:30PM EST 11/02/2020 – Today, a plaintiff was filed by the Republican party accusing Harris County Clerk Chris Hollins, a Democrat, of acting illegally when he allowed drive-through voting as an alternative to in-person voting during the coronavirus pandemic, as reported by SBS. A federal judge has ruled to deny the throwing out of 127,000 ballots from Houston-based voters. The area is known for its strong Democratic following.

20 percent of registered voters believe donald trump’s handling of the coronavirus is “excellent”
9:30aM aedt, 5:30PM 11/02/2020 – At a late-night campaign rally at Opa-Locka airport in the Miami area, Donald Trump told supporters he would be firing Dr. Anthony Fauci. “Don’t tell anybody, but let me wait until a little bit after the election.”

According to Morning Consult and newly-released survey statistics, 32 percent of registered voters said Dr. Anthony Fauci’s handling of the coronavirus is “excellent,” while 20 percent said the same of President Donald Trump. Overall, not a great response for either leader.

The Voting Eligible Population is  239,247,182
8:10am AEDT, 4:10PM EST 11/02/2020 – According to the United States Election Project.

93,131,017 people have voted as of Sunday
8:00 aM AEDT,  4:00PM EST 11/02/2020 – For the week ending November 1, Michael McDonald, a University of Florida professor who runs the US Elections Project has said that 93,131,017 people have already voted. According to CNNthe total number of voters for the 2016 election was 136.5 million. This means the turn out is already at two thirds of the past election.

thoughts?